The Generic GLP-1 Arrival Tracker

The Generic GLP-1 Arrival Tracker is a lookup table for the question patients and payers keep asking: when does the cheap version show up, and where? The answer depends on which country you stand in and which paperwork the brand owner kept up to date. Semaglutide’s core patent family was filed on March 20, 2006, so its plain 20 year term ran out on March 20, 2026 in every market that did not grant an extension. Canada is the exception. Novo Nordisk did not pay a CAD $250 (roughly $180) maintenance fee there in 2019, and the patent lapsed for good. That is the cheapest patent decision in the history of the drug.

Read it country first. Each row gives the compound patent, the other protection that still blocks a copy (data protection, supplementary certificates, device and formulation patents), and whether a generic is actually on sale. A compound patent expiring is necessary but not sufficient. China’s patent expired the same day as India’s. India had more than a dozen manufacturers selling on day one. China had zero approvals as of October 2026. The difference is data protection, which is a separate clock that nobody puts on a magazine cover.

What is not settled: the exact United States date (the Orange Book says December 5, 2031, Novo Nordisk says 2032), when China’s data protection actually ends (approximately April 2027), the end of Mexico’s data protection, and almost everything about exenatide, where this research holds no dated facts. Cells that the research does not settle say so.

Semaglutide compound patent by country

Country	Semaglutide compound patent	Other protection that still matters	Generic semaglutide on sale
Canada	Lapsed in 2019 after a CAD $250 (roughly $180) maintenance fee on CA 2601784 went unpaid; the patent was filed March 20, 2006	Data protection ended January 4, 2026; a supplementary certificate that would have run to March 20, 2028 was voided by the lapse; pen device patents reported to run to at least 2033	Yes, launches from mid-May 2026
India	Expired March 20, 2026	Oral tablet patent on the SNAC absorption enhancer in a specific range runs to 2031, blocking generic oral semaglutide	Yes, injectables from March 21, 2026
China	Expired March 20, 2026	Data protection to approximately April 2027; no patent term extension available because Ozempic was approved there in April 2021, before the June 1, 2021 patent law amendment	No; zero generics approved as of October 2026
United States	Ends December 5, 2031 for US 8,129,343 after extensions; Novo Nordisk reports 2032 as the effective compound expiry for Ozempic, Rybelsus and Wegovy	Secondary patents to 2038; litigation settlements point to generic entry around 2032	No
Brazil	Expired March 20, 2026; ANVISA refused Novo Nordisk’s extension request	not settled	Yes; first approval in May 2026, for diabetes pen presentations
South Africa	Expired in the early 2026 wave; exact date not settled	not settled	Yes, as of September 2026
Saudi Arabia	No local semaglutide patent reported	not settled	Yes; first launch September 16, 2026
Mexico	not settled	Closed by data protection; end date not public	No, as of September 2026
United Kingdom	Base patent to March 19, 2026; certificate SPC/GB18/023 runs to March 19, 2031	Market closed to generics until about March 2031	No
EU (Germany, France, Italy, Spain)	Certificates run to approximately March 2031	Market closed to generics until that date	No
Japan	Extended to approximately 2031 by patent term extension	Oral semaglutide generics reported to be lining up	No

Generic semaglutide approvals and launches

Date	Market	What happened
December 2025	India	A single judge of the Delhi High Court refused Novo Nordisk an injunction against Dr. Reddy’s, allowing manufacture for export to markets where the patent had lapsed
March 20, 2026	China	12 domestic semaglutide generics from 10 companies had filed registration applications with the NMPA
March 21, 2026	India	Generic injectables launched the day after expiry; over 40 brands; launch announcements on or before that day from Dr. Reddy’s, Sun Pharma, Zydus Lifesciences, Torrent, Alkem, Glenmark, Natco, Eris and USV
April 28, 2026	Canada	Health Canada approved Dr. Reddy’s generic semaglutide injection, the first generic semaglutide approved in a G7 country
May 1, 2026	Canada	Second approval: Apotex, once weekly, for adults with type 2 diabetes
May 2026	Brazil	First generic approval, diabetes pen presentations
Mid-May 2026	Canada	Generic launches begin
June 29, 2026	Canada	Sevmia approved, the first generic semaglutide for weight loss and the third approval overall; the research attributes the June 29 approval to Apotex
September 16, 2026	Saudi Arabia	First generic launch
October 2026	China	Still zero approvals; at least 17 manufacturers at Phase III or pre-market application, 9 targeting obesity

Formulation, device and secondary patents

Product	Market	Patent or protection	Runs to
Oral semaglutide (Rybelsus equivalent)	India	SNAC formulation patent	2031
Oral semaglutide (Rybelsus)	United States	15 US patents filed 2019 to 2026, 14 active; US 8,536,122 already expired as of March 2026	Estimated generic launch May 2, 2034
Semaglutide pens	Canada	Device patents	At least 2033
Wegovy	Canada	Reported patent protected as of the May 2026 Apotex approval	not settled
Semaglutide, secondary patents	United States	Patents beyond the compound patent	2038
US 8,129,343	United States	1,040 day term extension; originally due in 2026 before extensions; only one extension allowed per product, so Wegovy and Rybelsus cannot get a second one on it	December 5, 2031

Liraglutide and exenatide

Drug	Market	Generic approved	Detail
Liraglutide (Victoza)	United States	Yes	Teva launched an authorized generic of Victoza 1.8 mg on June 24, 2024 under a 2019 settlement with Novo Nordisk, described as the first US generic GLP-1
Liraglutide (Saxenda)	United States	Yes	FDA approved Teva’s generic referencing Saxenda, described as the first GLP-1RA generic approved in the US; approval date not public in this research
Liraglutide	United States	Not applicable	Device patent US 9,265,893 runs to September 2032; cardiovascular method of use patent US 9,968,659 runs to January 2037; compound patent has expired, date not settled
Liraglutide	Other markets	not settled	not settled
Exenatide	All markets	not settled	No dated patent or approval facts in this research

What prices did after generics landed

Market	Measure	Before generics	After generics
India	Monthly price	Ozempic at roughly $100 to $125 (8,800 to 11,175 rupees)	Generics at roughly $20 to $50 (1,800 to 4,200 rupees)
India	Brand response	Ozempic and Wegovy list prices	Novo Nordisk cut Ozempic 36% and Wegovy 48% within 10 days
India	Lowest stated monthly price, October 8, 2026	not applicable	Roughly $15 (1,290 rupees), vials from Natco and Eris
India	Generic share by value, April 2026	not applicable	50%: roughly $5 million of a roughly $10 million market (44 of 88 crore rupees)
India	Launch pricing target	Wegovy	Dr. Reddy’s hoped to price up to 60% lower, reported February 2026
Canada	Signaled discount	Brand	Sandoz signaled discounts of up to 70%
Canada	Market size at entry	Ozempic was the best-selling drug in 2025 at $2.9 billion, over three times the next drug, with over one million users	Realized generic prices not public
Liraglutide, United States	Price after generic entry	not public	not public

Pipelines and litigation to watch

Market	Item	Status
Canada	Pending generic semaglutide submissions	Five under review as of July 2, 2025; seven as of May 1, 2026; six as of June 29, 2026
India	Sun Pharma generic semaglutide tablets	Delhi High Court directed Sun to seek prior court approval before launch, on a Novo Nordisk infringement petition
China	Patent linkage rule (2021)	12 months of exclusivity for the first small molecule generic that invalidates a listed patent and wins approval; application to semaglutide not settled
Europe	EPO case T 1701/22, obesity treatment patent	Opposed by Teva, Generics [UK] and Galenicum; decided January 16, 2025; outcome not settled here
Europe	EPO case T 0187/25, cardiovascular patent	Opposed by STADA, Teva, Sandoz, Adalvo, Generics (U.K.) and several patent firms; dated October 8, 2026; outcome not settled here
United States	Tirzepatide (Mounjaro, Zepbound)	Compound patent to May 13, 2036; Lilly sued 14 generic companies including Sandoz and Dr. Reddy’s in August 2026

How to read this

A market opens when every blocking clock has run out, not just the compound patent. Check the second column, then the third. Canada shows that a lapsed patent still waits on data protection (January 4, 2026) and approvals (April 28, 2026 onward). China shows that an expired patent plus live data protection equals no generics. The United States date appears as December 5, 2031 in the Orange Book and 2032 in Novo Nordisk’s 2025 filing; both are reported here because the sources disagree. Price rows are from India unless marked; the source describing April 2026 calls it two months after entry, though launches began March 21.

What would change it

China’s data protection ending around April 2027 would move the largest closed market. A settlement or court ruling in the US could pull entry earlier or confirm 2032. Outcomes in the EPO cases and the Delhi High Court tablet case would move secondary patent dates. Canada’s six pending submissions, any dated exenatide facts, and realized Canadian generic prices would fill cells now marked not settled or not public. The tracker is updated as the research is.